Do Teens Make North Carolina Roads More Dangerous?

Teens, Crashes, Injuries, and Fatalities in 2020

Crashes, Injuries, and Fatalities: 2020 More Deadly

Total Teen Fatalities: Top 3 Causes by Year

Top 5 Deadliest Counties for Teens

Top 5 Counties: Most Teen Crashes

Top 5 Counties: Most Teen Injuries

Did Teen Drivers Make North Carolina Roads More Dangerous?

Visualizing North Carolina Teen Crash Data for 2020

Where Are Teens at Most Risk on North Carolina Roads?

As we sifted through the excellent data from the North Carolina 2020 Traffic Crash Facts book released by the North Carolina Department of Transportation, a question emerged.

The “COVID year” in 2020 was, by many measures, an outlier as far as traffic data was concerned. The pandemic forced many to stay home, yet the estimated annual vehicle miles traveled in the state still increased from the previous year. And traffic deaths rose – even as crashes and injuries dropped. What role did teens play in all this?

We questioned the effects of the government’s response to the COVID pandemic. One factor in the rise in fatalities appeared to be that drivers who were less risk-averse continued driving, and took more chances. Teens, it could be argued, fall into that category. So does the data bear it out?

Table of Contents

North Carolina saw a dip in crashes and injuries on its roads in 2020, but an increase in fatalities. Data for teens seems to mirror that big picture, but there are a few points in the data that we found interesting.

- 49% of fatally injured vehicle occupants ages 14-19 were not wearing their seat belts, according to 2020 data. Sadly, this isn’t an anomaly. The five-year average is 48%.

- Teens were involved in 16% fewer accidents and had nearly 17% fewer injuries than the five-year average in 2020, but saw nearly 29% more fatalities in accidents involving teens, regardless of driver age. They’re not exact, but these trends are similar to the overall statistical portrait of the state.

- Speed was cited in 42.1% of crashes with teen fatalities, 2.2% below the five-year average. Counterintuitively, while speeding was almost certainly more common on North Carolina’s roads as more risk-averse drivers stayed home, speeding wasn’t as much of an issue for teens.

- Alcohol-related teen fatalities were 22.4%, almost double 2019’s percentage and nearly 5% over the five-year average.

- 42,849 (17.3%) of North Carolina’s 247,214 crashes involved teens. In 2020, 6,246 (2.5%) of crashes involved teen drivers – the same percentage as 2019.

- In 2020, there were 69,001 injury crashes in North Carolina. Teen drivers were involved in 6,184 (8.9%) of those crashes.

It is important to note that the NCDOT data draws a line between crashes involving teens regardless of driver age and teen drivers. Unless specified, teen data refers to the former group.

And the data still tells a compelling story. These teens, however, are not necessarily contributing to the danger on North Carolina roads.

	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Crashes	48,386	50,723	52,385	50,988	51,061	42,849
Injury Crashes	10,218	10,460	10,687	10,165	9,834	8,505
Fatal Crashes	81	87	78	63	77	98
Fatalities % of Crashes	0.16%	0.17%	0.14%	0.12%	0.15%	0.22%
Fatalities % of Injury Crashes	0.79%	0.83%	0.72%	0.61%	0.78%	1.15% (^47%)

*Note that there may be more than one cause cited for a crash.

Looking into the data further, certain North Carolina counties saw inordinate numbers of teen fatalities. In 2020, the deadliest county in North Carolina for teens was Guilford County, with 11 deaths – more than 10% of the state’s total of 107 and 15% of all Guilford County traffic deaths (of which there were 73). Guilford County also had the highest teen death per injury crash percentage in counties with more than 1,000 crashes, at 1.66%.

Digging even deeper, 78 (79.5%) of teen fatalities occurred in just 29 (29%) of North Carolina counties. In 2020, 51 counties in North Carolina reported zero teen fatalities. Another 20 reported just one teen fatality.

Rank	County	Teen Fatalities
1	Guilford	11
2	Mecklenburg	9
3 (tie)	Durham	4
3 (tie)	Wake	4
3 (tie)	Rutherford	4

Rank	County	Teen Crashes
1	Mecklenburg	4,985
2	Wake	4,572
3	Guilford	2,256
4	Cumberland	1,324
5	Union	1,163

Rank	County	Teen Injuries
1	Mecklenburg	1,271
2	Wake	922
3	Guilford	662
4	Forsyth	414
5	Cumberland	329

Lane Departure

Distracted Driving

To determine this, we need to add some context to the NCDOT data – we know how many teen drivers were involved in crashes, injury crashes, and crashes with fatalities. The data does not indicate exactly how many or what percentage of the state’s drivers are, in fact, teens.

For that, we refer to data sourced from the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) regarding licensed drivers in each state. While the data is from 2019, it was published in 2020, and can offer useful (if incongruent) context.

According to FHWA data, there were 226,458 licensed drivers aged 19 and under in North Carolina. The same data indicates 7,620,001 total licensed drivers in the state at that time. That means that just about 2.97% of North Carolina’s licensed drivers are teens.

We know from NCDOT data how many crashes, injury crashes, and fatal crashes drivers aged 15-19 were involved in. Combining those data sets, we can draw a few conclusions.

Note: The FHWA data only includes licensed drivers, whereas the NCDOT data only rates for age, meaning the teens who were driving may not have been licensed. While we understand that this may skew things, we believe that the skew would be minimal.

Among 226,458 teen drivers, there were 6,246 injury crashes. That means 2.75% of teen drivers were in injury crashes, assuming no drivers were in more than one crash. The rest of North Carolina’s 7,393,543 licensed drivers were involved in 69,340 injury crashes, or 0.9%. Predictably, teen drivers are more prone to crashes.
Of the 107 teen deaths on North Carolina’s roads in 2020, 62 were driving. The total number of North Carolina drivers killed regardless of age was 1,097. So, teen drivers represent 5.65% of driver fatalities even though they only constitute about 3% of the state’s drivers.
Overall, teen drivers were killed in 62 of the state’s 1,523 fatal crashes. This assumes more than one teen driver was not involved in the same crash. Still, that’s 4% of the total for roughly 3% of the driving population.

So the answer to the burning question seems to be an unsurprising “yes.” Teens as a whole are simply less experienced and perhaps less disciplined behind the wheel. You can see the overall trend in the table below.